Neil McKenty
It is remarkable that the two candidates running for the Democratic nomination are so strong they risk weakening their own party. Imagine another three months of trench warfare between Senators Clinton and Obama. The collateral damage for the Democratic party is that this slugfest can only help Senator McCain now and in the general election next fall.
Because she is behind in so many categories – elected delegates, popular vote, states won – the New York Times has concluded Mrs. Clinton has no more than a five per cent chance of winning the nomination at the convention in Denver next summer.
So is it any wonder calls are increasing that Clinton should sit down, review her situation and bow out. Among others, the distinguished Democratic Senator Leahy from Vermont has urged her to do just that.
But Senator Clinton, displaying uncommon energy, resiliency and resolve, has made it clear she is staying the course at least until the primaries are over in early June. Even her critics admit she has every right to do so.
So what would it take for Senator Clinton to win? For starters, she would have to pull ahead in the popular vote to balance her second-place spot in number of states won and in pledged delegates. Unfortunately for Clinton, almost nobody who has done the math thinks that she can win the popular vote without re-votes in Florida and Michigan.
Mrs. Clinton is more than 700,000 votes behind in the popular vote. With 10 states and territories still to vote (including Pennsylvania which she will almost certainly win), perhaps another six million votes could be cast if turnout is very high.
To get the lead in the popular vote, she would need to win 56 percent of all the remaining votes – or well more than 60 percent of the votes outside of North Carolina and other states she is expected to lose. So far, though, Mrs. Clinton hasn’t won 60 per cent in any state except Arkansas, where she had reigned as first lady.
So any way you slice it, Mrs. Clinton’s chances of winning the popular vote are negligible. And without the popular vote, she is toast. In view of that bleak prospect why does Mrs. Clinton stubbornly insist on soldiering on? Her own people say she’s not a quitter and she will hang in right through the convention. Her critics are not so kind. Some say her real strategy is to destroy Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the general election so that she can compete again in 2012.
Meanwhile, the big winner of this Democratic fist-fighting is Senator McCain. A recent Gallup poll found that 19 percent of Mr. Obama’s supporters said they would vote for Mr. McCain in the general election if Mrs. Clinton were the nominee. More startling, 28 percent of Mrs.Clinton’s supporters said they would defect to Mr. McCain if Senator Obama were the nominee.
In addition, each Democratic candidate is inflicting wounds on the other, wounds the Republicans will rip the scabs off come the general election next fall. Mrs. Clinton says she would have walked out of Obama’s church given the hateful comments of his minister. She also said both she and Senator McCain are qualified to be commander in chief, pointedly omitting Senator Obama. The Obama campaign underlined Mrs. Clinton’s big fib about fleeing sniper fire in Bosnia.
Granted, tempers may cool by November. But dragging out the contest only deepens wounds and reduces time for healing. In nine of the last 10 presidential elections, the nominee chosen first ended up winning the general election. And if the Democratic nominee has been crippled, that would hurt Democrats running for other offices as well. When Mrs. Clinton goes down to defeat how many of her Democratic friends will she take with her?
I freely confess that up until the beginning of this year I supported Hillary Clinton for president. And, if despite all the odds, she is still selected and elected, I think she would make a good president. But I have now concluded that Senator Obama might make a great one. His speech on race relations was the best since Bobby Kennedy in 1968. He has special appeal for young people. He would put a new face on America in the world of nations.
Hillary has waged a gallant campaign. She could have a brilliant future in the Senate. But I believe the time has come, for the sake of her party and for her own sake, for Hillary to gracefully bow out.
Labels: Neil